Podcasts

Opportunities outside the US

During the podcast, Tim and Scott talk to some of the key topics impacting markets including productivity, deregulation and red tape, housing and interest rates.

Date 7 October 2025

Key Topics

Global economics is changing – Tim discusses how the world has changed for an economist, noting how data is ever more available and immediate and given this change more people are now distilling this information themselves.
Global macro-outlook – Tim believes the US economy is flatlining and foresees a modest US recession based on labour market data, a contraction in the housing market and a decline in consumer spending and forecasted US rate cuts. He notes however that the markets are telling a different story to the macro data “it's a very different message to what the equity market seems to be wanting to capitalise in their own prices.”
Tariffs are impacting US corporations’ capex plans – Tim believes that people are waiting and seeing just how big of a pass-through from the tariffs are likely to come through in terms of their own household budgets, noting it’s still early days. He holds the view that the revenue from tariffs will not be enough to reduce US government debt.
Bond markets are requiring additional insurance – Based on the current high levels of debt and One Big Beautiful Bill, Tim is concerned that the bond market will see a steeper curve, “if bond markets look at the tariff revenue and all they see is the US administration splashing that back into the economy rather than trying to repair some of the damage on the fiscal deficit side, then they'll be worrying about this crossover point.”
More opportunity outside the US – Tim is more optimistic on other economies outside the US, noting other countries are reducing interest rates earlier and deeper to generate growth. He notes that despite the contraction in the US economy, global industrial production hasn't slowed very much “the growth rates other countries are delivering, and valuation support is better outside the US.”
China should rebound which will be a positive for Australia – Tim believes China’s fiscal policy will be stimulatory and Australia will positively impacted by this liquidity “Australia is a good adjacency to China, probably even a greater adjacency to China than it used to be, because I think there is still some reservation for a lot of asset allocators to directly put money there.”
Upbeat on Australia’s outlook – Tim is seeing a rise in private demand and believes the RBA’s recent and forecast for lowering interest rates will drive housing affordability and the construction industry. He sees this as a positive as it will spill into other sectors by generating various forms of consumer demand and increasing employment.

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