Insights Market views

close

Choose a category.

• All articles
• Sustainability
• Lifestyle
• Business activities
• Charities

The devastation and destruction left by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States this autumn will extend beyond the loss of lives and property for years to come. Severe weather can cause severe disruption to the labour market by prompting job losses and downturns across industries. These storms have the power to reshape the US jobs market and economists expect they will complicate employment data collection, which ultimately affects policy makers’ decisions.

As America approaches the 2024 election, the political climate is awash with speculation and strategic manoeuvring. In recent calls with LGT Wealth Management, former Ambassador Ed McMullen and Congressman Don Beyer, provided comprehensive insights regarding different facets of the election

Central banks’ rate cutting cycles are underway with every data point analysed to determine the speed and scale of future adjustments. Consumer behaviour is a critical factor in shaping central bank decisions.

Equity markets experienced a shake-out over concerns the US economy may be stalling and concerns that the Federal Reserve was too late to cut rates. This was exacerbated when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates and guided towards more increases.

Whilst the financial press has focused on the larger-than-expected 50-basis point cut in the United States and the Labour government’s challenges, the recent major policy announcements by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have featured less in the news.

While the Fed targets unemployment, the BoE remains focused on inflation, likely proceeding with more gradual rate cuts unless economic conditions change significantly.

Central banks’ communication strategies shifting from forward guidance to data dependency has increased market volatility and made forward planning more challenging, as central banks now rely on the latest economic data.

September has got off to a volatile start, as concerns mount over the state of the US economy and equities and bonds are now negatively correlated—bonds have outperformed while equities have fallen, as concerns are no longer driven by inflation but a weakening labour market and its potential to weigh on US growth.

News that the pound has strengthened to its highest value against the dollar will be welcome to those enjoying the last of the summer holidays, as those pounds stretch further.

It seems hard to believe it has only been four weeks since Kamala Harris took over the Democratic nomination, after President Joe Biden stepped aside over concerns of his age and health.